Inicio  /  Water  /  Vol: 15 Par: 7 (2023)  /  Artículo
ARTÍCULO
TITULO

Assessment of Present and Future Water Security under Anthropogenic and Climate Changes Using WEAP Model in the Vilcanota-Urubamba Catchment, Cusco, Perú

Andrés Goyburo    
Pedro Rau    
Waldo Lavado-Casimiro    
Wouter Buytaert    
José Cuadros-Adriazola and Daniel Horna    

Resumen

Water is an essential resource for social and economic development. The availability of this resource is constantly threatened by the rapid increase in its demand. This research assesses current (2010?2016), short- (2017?2040), middle- (2041?2070), and long-term (2071?2099) levels of water security considering socio-economic and climate change scenarios using the Water Evaluation and Planning System (WEAP) in Vilcanota-Urubamba (VUB) catchment. The streamflow data of the Pisac hydrometric station were used to calibrate (1987?2006) and validate (2007?2016) the WEAP Model applied to the VUB region. The Nash Sutcliffe efficiency values were 0.60 and 0.84 for calibration and validation, respectively. Different scenarios were generated for socio-economic factors (population growth and increased irrigation efficiency) and the impact of climate change to evaluate their effect on the current water supply system. The results reveal that water availability is much higher than the current demand in the VUB for the period (2010?2016). For short-, middle- and long term, two scenarios were considered, ?Scenario 1? (RCP 4.5) and ?Scenario 2? (RCP 8.5). Climate change scenarios show that water availability will increase. However, this increase will not cover the future demands in all the sub-basins because water availability is not evenly distributed in all of the VUB. In both scenarios, an unmet demand was detected from 2050. For the period 2071?2099, an unmet demand of 477 hm3/year for ?Scenario 1? and 446 hm3/year for ?Scenario 2? were estimated. Because population and agricultural demands are the highest, the effects of reducing the growth rate and improving the irrigation structure were simulated. Therefore, two more scenarios were generated ?Scenario 3? (RCP 4.5 with management) and ?Scenario 4? (RCP 8.5 with management). This socio-economic management proved to be effective in reducing the unmet demand up to 50% in all sub-basins for the period 2071?2099.

 Artículos similares

       
 
Audrey Maria Noemi Martellotta, Daniel Levacher, Francesco Gentile and Alberto Ferruccio Piccinni    
The reduction in the usable capacity of reservoirs, which is linked to the ongoing silting phenomenon, has led to the need to remove sediments to allow the storage of greater quantities of water resources. At the same time, however, the removal of sedime... ver más

 
Vijeta Sharma, Manjari Gupta, Ajai Kumar and Deepti Mishra    
The video camera is essential for reliable activity monitoring, and a robust analysis helps in efficient interpretation. The systematic assessment of classroom activity through videos can help understand engagement levels from the perspective of both stu... ver más
Revista: Information

 
Mohammad Hmoud, Hadeel Swaity, Nardin Hamad, Omar Karram and Wajeeh Daher    
Artificial intelligence has been attracting the attention of educational researchers recently, especially ChatGPT as a generative artificial intelligence tool. The context of generative artificial intelligence could impact different aspects of students? ... ver más
Revista: Information

 
Kipkurui Ronoh, Jan Novotný, Libor Mrna, Alexandr Knápek and Dinara Sobola    
Surface structuring by ultrafast lasers is a promising technique to modify surface-related properties of materials to tailor them for specific applications. In the present study, we experimentally investigated the laser structuring of commercially pure t... ver más
Revista: Applied Sciences

 
Jesus Alejandro Serrato-Pedrosa, Guillermo Urriolagoitia-Sosa, Beatriz Romero-Ángeles, Guillermo Manuel Urriolagoitia-Calderón, Salvador Cruz-López, Alejandro Urriolagoitia-Luna, David Esaú Carbajal-López, Jonathan Rodolfo Guereca-Ibarra and Guadalupe Murillo-Aleman    
Plantar pressure distribution is a thoroughly recognized parameter for evaluating foot structure and biomechanical behavior, as it is utilized to determine musculoskeletal conditions and diagnose foot abnormalities. Experimental testing is currently bein... ver más
Revista: Applied Sciences