Resumen
In this study, an integrated system for the comprehensive analysis of climate change, runoff, reservoir operation, and power generation was developed. In order to apply reliable climate change scenarios to the Geum River Basin, we applied representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios adopted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change for its fifth assessment report in 2014 to the streamflow synthesis and reservoir regulation model at a regional scale with 1-km spatial resolution to analyze future runoff. This analyzed future runoff was applied to the Hydrologic Engineering Center?Reservoir System Simulation to analyze the hydrological behavior caused by reservoir operation through flow duration analysis at each of several important points. The objective was to provide initial data suitable for future basin management through an examination of power generation. Applying the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios showed that runoff would increase continuously compared with the past. However, in the RCP 8.5 scenario (where carbon reductions have not been achieved), runoff from flooding would be reduced considerably. It was found that power generation would be reduced compared with the past under the climate change scenarios, but additional power generation could be realized with the coordinated operation of reservoirs and weirs. These results suggest that, despite climate change, the risk to power generation could be reduced with the coordinated operation of reservoirs and weirs.