Resumen
Accurate forecasting of the tail water level (TWL) is of great importance for the safe and economic operation of hydropower stations. The prediction accuracy is significantly influenced by the backwater effect of downstream tributaries and the operation of adjacent hydropower stations, but the explicit quantification method of the backwater effect is lacking. In this study, a deep-learning-model-based forecasting method for TWL predictions under the backwater effect is developed and applied in the Xiangjiaba (XJB) hydropower station, which is influenced by the backwater effect of downstream tributaries, including the Hengjiang River (HJR) and the Minjiang River (MJR). Firstly, the random forest algorithm was used to analyze the influence of HJR and MJR flows with different lag times on the TWL prediction error of the XJB hydropower station. The results show that the time lags of the backwater effect of HJR and MJR run offs on the TWL of the XJB are 5~7 h and 1~2 h, respectively. Then, the run off thresholds of the HJR and MJR for impacting the TWL of the XJB station are obtained through scenario comparison, and the results show that the run off thresholds of the HJR and the MJR are 700 m3/s and 7000 m3/s, respectively. Finally, based on the analysis of the time lag and the threshold of the backwater effect, a deep learning model (LSTM)-based TWL forecasting method is established and applied to predict the TWL of the XJB station. The results show that the forecasting model has a good predictive performance, with 98.22% of absolute errors less than 20 cm. The mean absolute error over the validation dataset is 5.27 cm, and the maximum absolute error is 63.35 cm. Compared with the LSTM-based prediction model without considering the backwater effect, the mean absolute error decreased by 31%, and the maximum absolute error decreased by 71%.