Resumen
In addition to changes in the amount of rain, changes in land use upstream are considered a factor that directly affects the maximum runoff flow in a basin, especially in areas that have experienced floods and flash floods. This research article presents the application of the SWAT model to assess runoff in areas that have experienced flash floods, in order to analyze the proportion of land use change to the maximum runoff. Study areas that experienced flash floods were in three basins in Thailand (Lam Saphung Basin, Phrom River Basin, and Chern River Basin Part 1, which is a sub-basin of the Nam Chi River Basin). This study analyzed two main factors that influenced runoff in the river basin by considering two simulation situations: (1) changes in land use affecting runoff assessed by considering land use maps in 2006, 2008, 2010, 2015, 2017, 2019, and 2021 when using rainfall data only in the year 2021 for all cases and (2) changes in the amount of rainfall influencing runoff by considering the rainfall records in 2006, 2008, 2010, 2015, 2017, 2019, and 2021 when using the land use data only in the year 2021 for all cases. The results of the study found that the SWAT model can be effectively applied to estimate annual runoff in areas that have experienced flash floods under eight parameters with R2 values of 0.74, 0.82, and 0.74 for the Lam Saphung River Basin, Phrom River Basin, and Chern River Basin Part 1, respectively. In addition, it was found that the proportion of land use changes that involved changes from forested areas to residential areas was the greatest from 2008 to 2010 in the Phrom River Basin and Chern River Basin Part 1. This resulted in an increase in the maximum runoff amounts of 77.78% and 46.87%, respectively. When land use was constant, it was found that the rainfall in 2010, which was the highest, also had the greatest impact on the runoff in all three areas.