Resumen
Extreme and prolonged rainfall resulting from global warming determines a growing need for reliable Landslide Early Warning Systems (LEWS) to manage the risk of rainfall-induced shallow landslides (also called soil slips). Regional LEWS are typically based on data-driven methods because of their greater computational effectiveness, which is greater than the ones of physically based models (PBMs); however, the latter reproduces the physical mechanism of the modelled phenomena, and their modelling is more accurate. The purpose of this research is to investigate the prediction quality of the simplified PBM SLIP (implemented in the X-SLIP platform) when applied on a regional scale by analysing the stability of rain forecasts. X-SLIP was updated to handle the GRIB files (format for weather forecast). Four real-time predictions were simulated on some towns of the Emilia Apennines (northern Italy) involved in widespread soil slips on 5 April 2013; specifically, maps of factors of safety related to this event were derived assuming that X-SLIP had run 72 h, 48 h, 24 h and 12 h in advance. The results indicated that the predictions with forecasts (depending on the forecast quality) are as accurate as the ones derived with rainfall recordings only (benchmark). Moreover, the proposed method provides a reduced number of false alarms when no landslide was reported to occur in the whole area. X-SLIP with rain forecasts can, therefore, represent an important tool to predict the occurrence of future soil slips at a regional scale.