Resumen
With the increasing global reliance on maritime oil transportation, oil spills pose significant environmental hazards to coastal ecosystems. This study presents a comprehensive quantitative framework for assessing oil spill risks along the Jiaozhou Bay coastline in China. The research begins with an analysis of historical spill data to construct representative oil spill simulation scenarios. The advanced MEDSLIK-II oil spill prediction model is then employed to simulate oil spill trajectories under these scenarios, focusing on key parameters such as oil thickness and mass to evaluate the hazard levels associated with each scenario. Subsequently, the Environmental Sensitivity Index (ESI) is utilized to assess the vulnerability of coastal zones, while Geographic Information System (GIS) techniques are employed for a spatial analysis and visualization of the results. The case study, covering a 26.87 km stretch of the Jiaozhou Bay coastline, reveals 10 high-risk zones with a total length of 8561.2 m. These areas are predominantly characterized by saltwater marshes, brackish water marshes, and inundated low-lying areas, with ESI rankings of 9 and 10, accounting for 24% of the 339 analyzed segments. The modeling results indicate that in the simulated scenarios, oil spills originating from the Huangdao Oil Port and Qianwan Port pose the greatest risks, with potential impacts extending up to 12 km and 15 km along the coastline, respectively. The study highlights the importance of considering multiple factors, including oil spill trajectories, coastal geomorphology, and ecological sensitivity, in comprehensive risk assessments. The proposed framework demonstrates potential for adaptation and application to other coastal regions facing similar oil spill risks, contributing to the advancement of coastal management practices worldwide.