ARTÍCULO
TITULO

Modeling System Risk in the South African Insurance Sector: A Dynamic Mixture Copula Approach

John Weirstrass Muteba Mwamba and Ehounou Serge Eloge Florentin Angaman    

Resumen

In this paper, a dynamic mixture copula model is used to estimate the marginal expected shortfall in the South African insurance sector. We also employ the generalized autoregressive score model (GAS) to capture the dynamic asymmetric dependence between the insurers? returns and the stock market returns. Furthermore, the paper implements a ranking framework that expresses to what extent individual insurers are systemically important in the South African economy. We use the daily stock return of five South African insurers listed on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange from November 2007 to June 2020. We find that Sanlam and Discovery contribute the most to systemic risk, and Santam turns out to be the least systemically risky insurance company in the South African insurance sector. Our findings defy common belief whereby only banks are systemically risky financial institutions in South Africa and should undergo stricter regulatory measures. However, our results indicate that stricter regulations such as higher capital and loss absorbency requirements should be required for systemically risky insurers in South Africa.

 Artículos similares

       
 
Torsten Ullrich    
The autoregressive model is a tool used in time series analysis to describe and model time series data. Its main structure is a linear equation using the previous values to compute the next time step; i.e., the short time relationship is the core compone... ver más
Revista: Forecasting

 
Athanasios Tsagkanos, Konstantinos Gkillas, Christoforos Konstantatos and Christos Floros    
The present research investigates the impact of trading volume on stock return volatility using data from the Greek banking system. For our analysis, the empirical study uses daily measures of volatility constructed from intraday data for the period 5 Ja... ver más

 
Hanan Butt, Muhammad Raheel Raza, Muhammad Javed Ramzan, Muhammad Junaid Ali and Muhammad Haris    
According to statistics, there are 422 million speakers of the Arabic language. Islam is the second-largest religion in the world, and its followers constitute approximately 25% of the world?s population. Since the Holy Quran is in Arabic, nearly all Mus... ver más
Revista: Forecasting

 
Guanghong Zhang and Yune Lee    
This study focuses on the mediation channels through which the financial performance of intelligent manufacturing industries closely related to the Fourth Industrial Revolution has been affected. Along with compiling a massive volume of datasets publiciz... ver más

 
Ali Muhamed Ali, Hanqi Zhuang, James VanZwieten, Ali K. Ibrahim and Laurent Chérubin    
Despite the large efforts made by the ocean modeling community, such as the GODAE (Global Ocean Data Assimilation Experiment), which started in 1997 and was renamed as OceanPredict in 2019, the prediction of ocean currents has remained a challenge until ... ver más
Revista: Forecasting