ARTÍCULO
TITULO

Endogenous Information, Risk Characterization, and the Predictability of Average Stock Returns

Pradosh Simlai    

Resumen

In this paper we provide a new type of risk characterization of the predictability of two widely known abnormal patterns in average stock returns: momentum and reversal. The purpose is to illustrate the relative importance of common risk factors and endogenous information. Our results demonstrates that in the presence of zero-investment factors, spreads in average momentum and reversal returns correspond to spreads in the slopes of the endogenous information. The empirical findings support the view that various classes of firms react differently to volatility risk, and endogenous information harbor important sources of potential risk loadings. Taken together, our results suggest that returns are influenced by random endogenous information flow, which is asymmetric in nature, and can be used as a performance attribution factor. If one fails to incorporate the existing asymmetric endogenous information hidden in the historical behavior, any attempt to explore average stock return predictability will be subject to an unquantified specification bias.

 Artículos similares

       
 
Marcelo Ganem,Tara Keshar Nanda Baidya     Pág. 277 - 301
The risk premium in the Brazilian term structure of interest rates is partially driven by some specific defensive behavior following past monetary decisions. Until 2008, the Brazilian Central Bank has primarily dealt with domestic and external crises by ... ver más