Resumen
The Sacramento model is widely utilized in hydrological forecast, of which the accuracy and performance are primarily determined by the model parameters, indicating the key role of parameter estimation. This paper presents a multi-step parameter estimation method, which divides the parameter estimation of Sacramento model into three steps and realizes optimization step by step. We firstly use the immune clonal selection algorithm (ICSA) to solve the non-liner objective function of parameter estimation, and compare the parameter calibration result of ideal artificial data with Shuffled Complex Evolution (SCE-UA), Parallel Genetic Algorithm (PGA), and Serial Master-slaver Swarms Shuffling Evolution Algorithm Based on Particle Swarms Optimization (SMSE-PSO). The comparison result shows that ICSA has the best convergence, efficiency and precision. Then we apply ICSA to the parameter estimation of single-step and multi-step Sacramento model and simulate 32 floods based on application examples of Dongyang and Tantou river basins for validation. It is clearly shown that the results of multi-step method based on ICSA show higher accuracy and 100% qualified rate, indicating its higher precision and reliability, which has great potential to improve Sacramento model and hydrological forecast.