Inicio  /  Atmósfera  /  Vol: 17 Núm: 4 Par: 0 (2004)  /  Artículo
ARTÍCULO
TITULO

ENSO-tuna relations in the eastern Pacific Ocean and its prediction as a non-linear dynamic system

J. SUÁREZ SÁNCHEZ    
WALTER RITTER ORTÍZ    
CARLOS GAY GARCÍA    
J. TORRES JÁCOME    

Resumen

During the years between 1967 and 1994 the trimestral abundance of the yellowfin tuna fish (Thunnus albacares), expressed as the number of individuals per group age and cohort, for the Eastern Pacific Ocean (EPO), was used to calculate the biomass of this species per trimester. This information was obtained from the Inter-American Tropical Tuna Commission publications (ITTC). Graphic methods were applied to this data (crude data, phase space, subseries per trimester as well as annual averages) in order to identify the behavior of the dynamics of this variable; this data was correlated with information on the presence of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) for the same period. The analysis suggests that the presence of strong ENSO events correlate with the decline of tuna fish biomass, which is followed by a rapid increase of this variable in a 3:1 time ratio; this means that it takes three times as long for the biomass to decrease than it does to recover and return to similar or higher values. After the ENSO-tuna fish biomass relations were established, two types of models were adjusted to the tuna fish biomass information: neuronal network and ARIMA. Both models described adequately the tuna fish biomass dynamics; however, the ARIMA model also permitted an adequate prediction of the behavior of ENSO variable, emphasizing that this model correctly predicted the presence of 1997 ENSO.  

 Artículos similares

       
 
Juan M. Soria, Juan Víctor Molner, Rebeca Pérez-González, Bárbara Alvado, Lucía Vera-Herrera and Susana Romo    
The Albufera of Valencia, a Mediterranean coastal lagoon, has been in a turbid state since 1974, with only four episodes of temporary water transparency in spring. Despite its average depth of 1 m and oligohaline waters, excessive turbidity, fish grazing... ver más

 
Dan Hee Han and Seung Pyo Gong    
Establishing muscle lineage cell lines from fish will provide a great opportunity to study muscle development, which can eventually contribute to the improvement of the fish quality in the aquaculture industry. However, there has been a lack of the devel... ver más

 
Tamar Shabi, Yaron Ziv, Reuven Yosef and Nadav Shashar    
Global degradation of coral reefs is reflected in the destruction of shelters in various environments and threatens the stability of marine ecosystems. Artificial shelters offer an alternative, but their design could be more challenging due to limited kn... ver más

 
Pedro Romero-Gomez, Thanasak Poomchaivej, Rajesh Razdan, Wayne Robinson, Rudolf Peyreder, Michael Raeder and Lee J. Baumgartner    
Fish protection is a priority in regions with ongoing and planned development of hydropower production, like the Mekong River system. The evaluation of the effects of turbine passage on the survival of migratory fish is a primary task for informing hydro... ver más
Revista: Water

 
Boban Ðuric, Brankica Kartalovic, Kristina Habschied, Nikolina Novakov, Jelena Vrane?evic, Boris Brkic and Kre?imir Mastanjevic    
The objective of this study is an investigation of the influence of six different plastic packages (polyethylene terephthalate, high-density polyethylene, biodegradable high-density polyethylene, low-density polyethylene, polypropylene and polyamide poly... ver más
Revista: Applied Sciences