Inicio  /  Forecasting  /  Vol: 5 Par: 2 (2023)  /  Artículo
ARTÍCULO
TITULO

Automation in Regional Economic Synthetic Index Construction with Uncertainty Measurement

Priscila Espinosa and Jose M. Pavía    

Resumen

Subnational jurisdictions, compared to the apparatuses of countries and large institutions, have less resources and human capital available to carry out an updated conjunctural follow-up of the economy (nowcasting) and for generating economic predictions (forecasting). This paper presents the results of our research aimed at facilitating the economic decision making of regional public agents. On the one hand, we present an interactive app that, based on dynamic factor analysis, simplifies and automates the construction of economic synthetic indicators and, on the other hand, we evaluate how to measure the uncertainty associated with the synthetic indicator. Theoretical and empirical developments show the suitability of the methodology and the approach for measuring and predicting the underlying aggregate evolution of the economy and, given the complexity associated with the dynamic factor analysis methodology, for using bootstrap techniques to measure the error. We also show that, when we combine different economic series by dynamic factor analysis, approximately 1000 resamples is sufficient to properly calculate the confidence intervals of the synthetic index in the different time instants.

 Artículos similares

       
 
Mduduzi Biyase, Talent Zwane, Precious Mncayi and Mokgadi Maleka    
While technological innovation and financial development are broadly credited as important drivers of economic growth of developed nations, their impact on inequality (especially in emerging economies) remains understudied. Thus, the objective of this st... ver más

 
Maud Korley and Evangelos Giouvris    
Research proposes that economic policy uncertainty (EPU) leads to exchange rate fluctuations. Given that African countries experience higher levels of uncertainty in developed/emerging markets, we examine the extent to which domestic and foreign EPU affe... ver más

 
Ni Putu Dewi Partini, Mahjus Ekananda     Pág. 26 - 40
The efforts of the G-20 for sustainable development continue to be pursued in order to improve human welfare while reducing pressure on ecological resources. The ecological footprint is used as a more comprehensive measure that can see the pressure on th... ver más

 
Dohyoung Kwon    
This study developed an investment framework to implement dynamic factor rotation strategies according to changes in economic conditions. I constructed a useful macro indicator that tracked real-time business cycles of the US economy and applied a trend-... ver más

 
Nassar S. Al-Nassar and Beljid Makram    
This study investigates return and asymmetric volatility spillovers and dynamic correlations between the main and small and medium-sized enterprise (SME) stock markets in Saudi Arabia and Egypt for the periods before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. Ret... ver más