Resumen
Irrigation guarantee capacity is the critical factor in evaluating the development level of irrigated agriculture and is also a future development trend. It is necessary to carry out scientific planning and reasonable allocation of irrigation water resources to ensure the sustainable development of irrigated agriculture and improve the efficiency and effectiveness of water resource utilization. This study is based on remote sensing meteorological data and the principles of the Miami model and water balance. We calculated the annual irrigation water requirement and effective irrigation water, and used the ratio between the effective irrigation water and irrigation water requirement as the basis for evaluating an irrigation guarantee capability index. By using irrigation guarantee capability evaluation indicators from multiple years, we evaluated and assessed the irrigation guarantee capability in the arid region of northwest China. In addition, we analyzed three indicators (i.e., irrigation water requirement IWR, effective irrigation water EIW, and irrigation guarantee capacity index IGCI) to explore the rational allocation of water resources in the northwest arid area. IWR, EIW, and ICGI in northwest China from 2001 to 2020 were analyzed, and the average values were 379.32 mm, 171.29 mm, and 0.50, respectively. Simultaneously, an analysis was conducted on the temporal and spatial distribution of IWR, EIW, and IGCI in the northwest region of China from 2001 to 2020. The results indicated that the rainfall in the southwestern edge of the Yellow River Basin and the eastern part of the Qaidam Basin could meet the irrigation water demand. The northwest edge of the Yellow River Basin, the central Hexi Inland River Basin, most of Northeast Xinjiang, central and southeastern Xinjiang, and other regions mainly rely on irrigation to meet agricultural water requirements. The rest of the region needs to rely on irrigation for supplementary irrigation to increase crop yield. All districts in the ?Three Water Lines? area of northwest China should vigorously develop sprinkler irrigation, micro-irrigation, pipe irrigation, and other irrigation water-saving technologies and support engineering construction. Under the premise of ensuring national food security, they should reduce the planting area of rice, corn, and orchards, and increase the planting area of economic crops such as beans and tubers in the ?Three Water Lines? area. That is conducive to further reducing the agricultural irrigation quota and improving the matching degree of irrigation water resources. It provides a scientific reference for optimizing water resource allocation and improving irrigation water-use efficiency in northwest arid areas.