ARTÍCULO
TITULO

On the Statistical Validation of Technical Analysis

Giuliano Lorenzoni    
Adrian Pizzinga    
Rodrigo Atherino    
Cristiano Fernandes    
Rosane Riera Freire    

Resumen

Technical analysis, or charting, aims on visually identifying geometrical patterns in price charts in order to antecipate price "trends". In this paper we revisit the issue of thecnical analysis validation which has been tackled in the literature without taking care for (i) the presence of heterogeneity and (ii) statistical dependence in the analyzed data - various agglutinated return time series from distinct financial securities. The main purpose here is to address the first cited problem by suggesting a validation methodology that also "homogenizes" the securities according to the finite dimensional probability distribution of their return series. The general steps go through the identification of the stochastic processes for the securities returns, the clustering of similar securities and, finally, the identification of presence, or absence, of informatinal content obtained from those price patterns. We illustrate the proposed methodology with a real data exercise including several securities of the global market. Our investigation shows that there is a statistically significant informational content in two out of three common patterns usually found through technical analysis, namely: triangle, rectangle and head and shoulders.

 Artículos similares

       
 
Daniela Galatro, Rosario Trigo-Ferre, Allana Nakashook-Zettler, Vincenzo Costanzo-Alvarez, Melanie Jeffrey, Maria Jacome, Jason Bazylak and Cristina H. Amon    
Acute myeloid leukemia (AML) is a type of blood cancer that affects both adults and children. Benzene exposure has been reported to increase the risk of developing AML in children. The assessment of the potential relationship between environmental benzen... ver más
Revista: Algorithms

 
Ali Mirzazade, Cosmin Popescu and Björn Täljsten    
The aim of this study was to find strains in embedded reinforcement by monitoring surface deformations. Compared with analytical methods, application of the machine learning regression technique imparts a noteworthy reduction in modeling complexity cause... ver más
Revista: Infrastructures

 
Fawad Ali Mangi, Guoxin Su and Minjie Zhang    
The study of business process analysis and optimisation has attracted significant scholarly interest in the recent past, due to its integral role in boosting organisational performance. A specific area of focus within this broader research field is proce... ver más
Revista: Future Internet

 
Juan Ochoa-Aldeán and Carlos Silva-Cárdenas    
Wireless mesh networks (WMNs) offer a pragmatic solution with a cost-effective ratio when provisioning ubiquitous broadband internet access and diverse telecommunication systems. The conceptual underpinning of mesh networks finds application not only in ... ver más
Revista: Computers

 
Wentao Lv, Fan Li, Shijie Luo and Jie Xiang    
Autism spectrum disorder (ASD) is a complex neurodevelopmental disorder that can reduce quality of life and burden families. However, there is a lack of objectivity in clinical diagnosis, so it is very important to develop a method for early and accurate... ver más
Revista: Algorithms