Resumen
Confronted by poverty, income disparities and mounting demands for basic services such as clean water, sanitation and health care, urban planners in developing countries like South Africa, face daunting challenges. This paper explores the role of Integrated land use and transportation modelling in metropolitan planning processes aimed at improving the spatial efficiency of urban form and ensuring that public sector investments in social and economic infrastructure contribute to economic growth and the reduction of persistent poverty and inequality. The value of such models is not in accurately predicting the future but in providing participants in the (often adversarial) planning process with a better understanding of cause and effect between different components of the urban system and in discovering common ground that could lead to compromise. This paper describes how an Urban Simulation Model was developed by adapting one of the leading microsimulation models (UrbanSim) originating from the developed world to South African conditions and how the requirements for microscopic data about the base year of a simulation were satisfied in a sparse data environment by introducing various typologies. A sample of results from three case studies in the cities of Tshwane, Ekurhuleni and Nelson Mandela Bay between 2013 and 2017 are then presented to illustrate how modelling supports the planning process by adding elements of rational analysis and hypothesis testing to the evaluation of proposed policies.