Mediumtermynvooruitskatting deur die ontleding en sintese van periodisiteit

Resumen

AbstractThe programme suit TEMPOS is an aid to medium-term forecasting of national major economic time series. It is based on the assumption that the well-known recurrent, but non-periodic business cycles can be represented by simple but strictly periodic cyclic movements, each driven by a separate but not necessarily known external economic factor. As the elements of such a model are individually extrapolatable, the model as a whole may be extrapolated over a limited horizon.Die suite rekenaarprogramme TEMPOS is 'n hulpmiddel vir vooruitskatting in die mediumtermyn van nasionale omvang ekonomiese tydreekse. As uitgangspunt geld die aanname dat die bekende herhalende maar nie-periodieke konjunktuurgolwe voorgestel kan word deur eenvoudiger maar streng periodieke golwe, elk gedrewe deur eiesoortige eksterne ekonomiese faktore.