Redirigiendo al acceso original de articulo en 21 segundos...
ARTÍCULO
TITULO

Primary energy sources planning based on demand forecasting: The case of Turkey

Coskun Hamzaçebi    

Resumen

Forecasting electricity consumption is a very important issue for governments and electricity related foundations of public sector. Recently, Grey Modelling (GM (1,1)) has been used to forecast electricity demand successfully. GM (1,1) is useful when the observed data is limited, and it does not require any preliminary information about the data distribution. However, the original form of GM (1,1) needs some improvements in order to use for time series, which exhibit seasonality. In this study, a grey forecasting model which is called SGM (1,1) is proposed to give the forecasting ability to the basic form of GM(1,1) in order to overcome seasonality issues. The proposed model is then used to forecast the monthly electricity demand of Turkey between 2015 and 2020. Obtained forecasting values were used to plan the primary energy sources of electricity production. The findings of the study may guide the planning of future plant investments and maintenance operations in Turkey. Moreover, the method can also be applied to predict seasonal electricity demand of any other country.

 Artículos similares

       
 
Atanda K. Raji, Mohamed T. E. Kahn    
The problems of increasing electricity demand by the unabated population and economy growth can be solved by employing sustainable distributed generation technologies. Convectional primary energy sources such as coal, liquid hydrocarbons? and natural gas... ver más

 
Ilze Pretorius Pretorius, Stuart Piketh, Roelof Burger, Hein Neomagus    
This paper investigates trends of historical and projected future South African coal-fired power station criteria (total primary Particulate Matter (PM), Sulphur Dioxide (SO2) and Nitrogen Oxides (NOx)) and Carbon Dioxide (CO2) emissions. It was found th... ver más

 
David A. Blum    
Independent venture capital firms require actionable economic best practice strategies to reduce uncertainty when investing in biofuel firms. Biofuels derived from plant oils are a primary source of renewable fuel energy replacing petrol diesel. Investin... ver más

 
Philip Lloyd    
As part of a household energisation experiment, a baseline survey was undertaken from a sample of 152 households in the informal settlement of Samora Machel. The survey covered energy needs for cooking, space heating, water heating, lighting and any othe... ver más

 
Alvinn Ruíz Pérez,Julio Rafael Gómez Sarduy,Percy Rafael Viego Felipe     Pág. 2 - 10
En este trabajo se aborda la temática del cálculo de las pérdidas de transformación. El método propuesto toma en consideración la variabilidad y asimetría de la carga, así como la presencia de problemas de calidad de la energía como el desbalance y las v... ver más