Redirigiendo al acceso original de articulo en 22 segundos...
Inicio  /  Energies  /  Vol: 10 Núm: 10 Par: October (2017)  /  Artículo
ARTÍCULO
TITULO

An Optimized Prediction Intervals Approach for Short Term PV Power Forecasting

Qiang Ni    
Shengxian Zhuang    
Hanmin Sheng    
Song Wang and Jian Xiao    

Resumen

High quality photovoltaic (PV) power prediction intervals (PIs) are essential to power system operation and planning. To improve the reliability and sharpness of PIs, in this paper, a new method is proposed, which involves the model uncertainties and noise uncertainties, and PIs are constructed with a two-step formulation. In the first step, the variance of model uncertainties is obtained by using extreme learning machine to make deterministic forecasts of PV power. In the second stage, innovative PI-based cost function is developed to optimize the parameters of ELM and noise uncertainties are quantization in terms of variance. The performance of the proposed approach is examined by using the PV power and meteorological data measured from 1kW rooftop DC micro-grid system. The validity of the proposed method is verified by comparing the experimental analysis with other benchmarking methods, and the results exhibit a superior performance.

 Artículos similares

       
 
Li Li, Zhongxu Zhang, Dongsheng Zhao, Yue Qiang, Bo Ni, Hengbin Wu, Shengchao Hu and Hanjie Lin    
The occurrence of debris flows are a significant threat to human lives and property. Estimating the debris flow scale is a crucial parameter for assessing disaster losses in such events. Currently, the commonly used method for estimating debris flow runo... ver más
Revista: Water

 
Hang Cen, Delong Huang, Qiang Liu, Zhongling Zong and Aiping Tang    
Urban municipal water supply is an important part of underground pipelines, and their scale continues to expand. Due to the continuous improvement in the quality and quantity of data available for pipeline systems in recent years, traditional pipeline ne... ver más
Revista: Water

 
Wei Zhao, Zilong Wang, Haiyang Zhang and Ting Wang    
The deformation of concrete-face rockfill dams (CFRDs) is a key parameter for the safety control of reservoir and dam systems. Rapid and accurate estimation of the deformation characteristics of CFRDs is a top priority. To realize this, we proposed a new... ver más
Revista: Water

 
Shouthiri Partheepan, Farzad Sanati and Jahan Hassan    
The intensity and frequency of bushfires have increased significantly, destroying property and living species in recent years. Presently, unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) technology advancements are becoming increasingly popular in bushfire management syste... ver más
Revista: Drones

 
Alice Wang, Rozita Dara, Samira Yousefinaghani, Emily Maier and Shayan Sharif    
Infectious diseases take a large toll on the global population, not only through risks of illness but also through economic burdens and lifestyle changes. With both emerging and re-emerging infectious diseases increasing in number, mitigating the consequ... ver más