Redirigiendo al acceso original de articulo en 24 segundos...
Inicio  /  Water  /  Vol: 8 Núm: 11 Par: 0 (2016)  /  Artículo
ARTÍCULO
TITULO

Simulation and Prediction of Climate Variability and Assessment of the Response of Water Resources in a Typical Watershed in China

Hua Jin    
Qiao Zhu    
Xuehua Zhao    
Yongbo Zhang    

Resumen

The assessment of water resource responses to climate change is required in water resource planning and management, protecting environmental quality, and managing watersheds. This study modeled surface runoff and baseflow responses to variations in precipitation (0%, ±10%, and ±20%) and temperature (0 °C, ±1 °C, and ±2 °C) in 25 types of scenarios in the Lanhe Watershed (1140 km2), which possesses the typical hydrological and meteorological characteristics of the Loess Plateau in China. The study is based on the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), which was calibrated and validated using the coefficient of determination (R2), Nash-Suttcliffe (Ens), and Percent bias (PBIAS), using the observed streamflow of Shangjingyou Station, a unique gauging station in the study area. The model was calibrated with daily streamflow, from 1967 to 1996, and then validated from 1997 to 2011. R2, Ens, and PBIAS were 0.95 and 0.84, 0.78 and 0.72, and 0.6% and -9.1% in annual and monthly calibration periods, 0.90 and 0.78, 0.74 and 0.67, and 22.1% and 18.8% in annual and monthly validation periods, and the overall performance ratings was ?satisfactory?. The assessment indicates that surface runoff is likely to be more affected than baseflow when altering temperatures and precipitation, and the noticeable changes of surface and baseflow are from June to September and October to November, respectively. Results also indicate that surface runoff and baseflow are very sensitive to the projected reduction in temperature, rather than to an increase of temperature, while precipitation is a constant. In turn, when the temperature is a constant, the surface runoff is sensitive to the projected increase in precipitation and the baseflow is sensitive to the decrease in precipitation.

 Artículos similares

       
 
Jinqiang Yao, Yu Qian, Zhanyu Feng, Jian Zhang, Hongbin Zhang, Tianyi Chen and Shaoyin Meng    
With the development of vehicle-road network technologies, the future traffic flow will appear in the form of hybrid network traffic flow for a long time. Due to the change in traffic characteristics, the current hard shoulder running strategy based on t... ver más
Revista: Applied Sciences

 
Koichiro Hirose, Koji Fukudome, Hiroya Mamori and Makoto Yamamoto    
Ice crystal icing occurs in jet engine compressors, which can severely degrade jet engine performance. In this study, we developed an ice crystal trajectory simulation, considering the state changes of ice crystals with a forced convection model, indicat... ver más
Revista: Aerospace

 
Jiangtao Chen, Jiao Zhao, Wei Xiao, Luogeng Lv, Wei Zhao and Xiaojun Wu    
Given the randomness inherent in fluid dynamics problems and limitations in human cognition, Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) modeling and simulation are afflicted with non-negligible uncertainties, casting doubts on the credibility of CFD. Scientifica... ver más
Revista: Aerospace

 
Annie Rose Elizabeth, Sumit Sarma, T. Jayachandran, P. A. Ramakrishna and Mondeep Borthakur    
Multiple applications in aerospace utilize pyrotechnic charges for their operation, and these charges are predominantly in the form of granules. One of the most used charges is boron potassium nitrate (BPN), and the present study focuses on mathematicall... ver más
Revista: Aerospace

 
Mengzhen Wu, Xianghong Xu, Haochen Zhang, Rui Zhou and Jianshan Wang    
As a traditional numerical simulation method for pantograph?catenary interaction research, the pantograph?catenary finite element model cannot be applied to the real-time monitoring of pantograph?catenary contact force, and the computational cost require... ver más
Revista: Applied Sciences