ARTÍCULO
TITULO

Ist der Euro gefährdet? Is the European currency euro put at risk?

Armin Rohde    
Frank Ehrhold    

Resumen

Due to high national debt in several member states of the Euro-Currency-Areawhich led to huge relief programmes the single European currency Euro seems to beat risk. Bur neither inflation rates nor exchange rate movements of the Euro since1999 up to 2011 give reasons to believe that an up to now success story of the Eurowill come to a sudden end in shortness. On the other hand it often had been arguedthat increasing national debt will inevitably lead to higher inflation rates and willendanger a currency by permanent devaluation. But the institutional and legalframework of the European monetary policy, if used correctly, will give sufficientprotection against inflation pressure due to increasing national debt. The mostdanger for the European currency or for the European-Currency-Area can be seen indrifting apart of national competiveness between the member states of the Euro-Area, especially due to an existing lack of coordination in wage policy. Differentwage policies in the member states of the Euro-Area in the past had led to differentnational inflation rates and had caused calculated real exchange rate movementswhich had lasting influence on national competiveness, which hamper internationaltrade in the case of real appreciation or which promote international trade in the caseof real depreciation..

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