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Infraestructura para el desarrollo que queremos 2026-2030

Elaborado por el Consejo de Políticas de Infraestructura (CPI), este documento constituye una hoja de ruta estratégica para orientar la inversión y la gestión de infraestructura en Chile. Presenta propuestas organizadas en siete ejes estratégicos, sin centrarse en proyectos específicos, sino en influir en las decisiones de política pública para promover una infraestructura que conecte territorios, genere oportunidades y eleve la calidad de vida de la población.
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ARTÍCULO
TITULO

An Assessment of Uncertainties in Flood Frequency Estimation Using Bootstrapping and Monte Carlo Simulation

Zaved Khan    
Ataur Rahman and Fazlul Karim    

Resumen

Reducing uncertainty in design flood estimates is an essential part of flood risk planning and management. This study presents results from flood frequency estimates and associated uncertainties for five commonly used probability distribution functions, extreme value type 1 (EV1), generalized extreme value (GEV), generalized pareto distribution (GPD), log normal (LN) and log Pearson type 3 (LP3). The study was conducted using Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) and bootstrapping (BS) methods for the 10 river catchments in eastern Australia. The parameters were estimated by applying the method of moments (for LP3, LN, and EV1) and L-moments (for GEV and GPD). Three-parameter distributions (e.g., LP3, GEV, and GPD) demonstrate a consistent estimation of confidence interval (CI), whereas two-parameter distributions show biased estimation. The results of this study also highlight the difficulty in flood frequency analysis, e.g., different probability distributions perform quite differently even in a smaller geographical area.

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PÁGINAS
pp. 0 - 0
MATERIAS
INFRAESTRUCTURA
REVISTAS SIMILARES
Hydrology
Environments
Water

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