Inicio  /  Water  /  Vol: 14 Par: 18 (2022)  /  Artículo
ARTÍCULO
TITULO

Future Projections and Uncertainties of CMIP6 for Hydrological Indicators and Their Discrepancies from CMIP5 over South Korea

Manh Van Doi and Jongho Kim    

Resumen

Future climate projections and their uncertainties affect many aspects of the world, so reliable assessments are essential for policymakers who need to prepare mitigation measures in the context of climate change. In this study, we examined the projected future climate and estimated uncertainty for South Korea using results from the global climate model (GCM), updated from the sixth phase of the coupled model intercomparison project (CMIP6); we then compared the differences in outcome between the fifth and sixth phases of the CMIP (CMIP5 and CMIP6). Future projections were estimated as the averaged climatological mean (denoted as CM¯" role="presentation">??????????????????CM¯ C M ¯ ) for the four proposed hydrological indicators. Model uncertainty (UEMI) and stochastic uncertainty (USTO) were quantified as the range of ensembles of the climatological mean, while the emission uncertainty (UEMI) was estimated as the difference between the CM¯" role="presentation">??????????????????CM¯ C M ¯ values of two emission scenarios. The following are the key findings of our study: (1) using an ensemble of multiple GCMs is recommended over using individual GCMs, and models in CMIP6 performed better for reproducing climate during the control period than models in the CMIP5; (2) the CM¯" role="presentation">??????????????????CM¯ C M ¯ values in the CMIP6 increased for future periods, especially toward the end of this century, increasing mean temperature (meanTa) by approximately 5 °C, total precipitation (totPr), and daily maximum precipitation (maxDa) by about 20%, and these values were higher than those of the CMIP5; (3) the UGCM, USTO, and UEMI values increased for future periods in most of the indices; (4) the UGCM (for meanTa, totPr, and maxDa) and USTO (for totPr and maxDa) magnitudes in the CMIP6 were higher than those in the CMIP5, while the UEMI values between the two CMIPs were similar for all of the indices; (5) the UGCM was the major source of the largest uncertainty for meanTa, the USTO had a significant impact on future projections of totPr and maxDa, especially in the summer, and the UEMI became the dominant source of uncertainty for projecting the future meanTa, especially in the period farthest from the present. These results should provide useful information for studies that quantify future climate-induced hydrological impacts.

 Artículos similares

       
 
Onesmo Zakaria Sigalla, Sekela Twisa, Nyemo Amos Chilagane, Mohamed Fadhili Mwabumba, Juma Rajabu Selemani and Patrick Valimba    
Global croplands, pastures, and human settlements have expanded in recent decades. This is accompanied by large increases in energy, water, and fertilizer consumption, along with considerable losses of biodiversity. In sub-Saharan Africa, policies are im... ver más
Revista: Water

 
Andreas F. Gkontzis, Sotiris Kotsiantis, Georgios Feretzakis and Vassilios S. Verykios    
In an epoch characterized by the swift pace of digitalization and urbanization, the essence of community well-being hinges on the efficacy of urban management. As cities burgeon and transform, the need for astute strategies to navigate the complexities o... ver más

 
Noah Irfan Azran, Hafeez Jeofry, Jing Xiang Chung, Liew Juneng, Syamir Alihan Showkat Ali, Alex Griffiths, Muhammad Zahir Ramli, Effi Helmy Ariffin, Mohd Fuad Miskon, Juliana Mohamed, Kamaruzzaman Yunus and Mohd Fadzil Akhir    
Sea level rise will significantly impact coastal areas around the world. As a coastal country, Malaysia?s rising sea levels are a significant concern because they would affect 70% of its population. The study of sea level rise is important in order to im... ver más

 
Souad Ben Salem, Abdelkrim Ben Salem, Ahmed Karmaoui and Mohammed Yacoubi Khebiza    
Water resources in Morocco have been severely influenced by climate change and prolonged drought, particularly in the pre-Saharan zone. The Ziz watershed faces increasing pressure due to the high demographic growth, increased demand for water, excessive ... ver más
Revista: Water

 
Jiahao Li, Lingli Fan, Xuzhe Chen, Chunqiao Lin, Luchi Song and Jianjun Xu    
Analyzing and forecasting the Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR) is vital for South Asia?s socio-economic stability. Using 35 climate models from the latest generation of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) to simulate and project ISMR, ... ver más
Revista: Water