ARTÍCULO
TITULO

House Price Forecasts, Forecaster Herding, and the Recent Crisis

Christian Pierdzioch    
Jan Christoph Rülke and Georg Stadtmann    

Resumen

We used the Wall Street Journal survey data for the period 2006?2012 to analyze whether forecasts of house prices and housing starts provide evidence of (anti-)herding of forecasters. Forecasts are consistent with herding (anti-herding) of forecasters if forecasts are biased towards (away from) the consensus forecast. We found that anti-herding is prevalent among forecasters of house prices. We also report that, following the recent crisis, the prevalence of forecaster anti-herding seems to have changed over time.

Palabras claves

 Artículos similares

       
 
Yunisvita Yunisvita,Imelda Imelda,Fachrizal Bachri,Nazeli Adnan,Saadah Yuliana     Pág. 294 - 299
This research aims to analyze the factors that determine the student probability to choose their residence between private boarding houses and Unsri dormitories. Using the Binomial Logistic Regression models of the 275 samples of student respondents of U... ver más

 
Teresa Valeria Parise and Vijay Shenai    
In response to the financial crisis, a number of reforms to bank regulation have been introduced. Many of these reforms seek to improve the resilience of banks through making changes to their structure. In the U.K., the Banking Reform Act 2013 was enacte... ver más

 
Yip Chee Yin,Woo Kok Hoong,Oon Kam Hoe,Nabihah Binti Aminaddin,Nurfadhilah Binti Abu Hasan     Pág. 132 - 138
This paper aims to differentiate housing price bubble from a housing price cycle through the investigation and analysis of the price volatility driving components using graphical analysis, cointegrating regression and mean reversion regression. The findi... ver más

 
Zaidi Isa,Nur Amalina Shafie     Pág. 154 - 163
Islamic Bank in Malaysia uses Bai? Bithaman Ajil (BBA) method and Musharakah Mutanaqisah Partnership (MMP) method for the home financing process. However, these house price calculation methods are still similar to conventional computation. In addition, p... ver más

 
Kwok-Chiu Lam     Pág. 26 - 36
Long-run equilibrium house price is determined by demand and supply factors. On the demand side, previous studies on housing prices often use gross domestic product (GDP) and population or GDP per capita as purported driver(s), yet little attention has b... ver más