ARTÍCULO
TITULO

Returns Predictability and Stock Market Efficiency in Brazil

Regis Augusto Ely    

Resumen

This paper searches for evidence of predictability in the Brazilian stock market using portfolios grouped by sector and firm size with data from 1999 to 2008. I conduct an automatic variance ratio test using wild bootstrap. This methodology eliminates the arbitrary choice of the holding period as well as improves small sample properties. The results suggest (i) stocks from the industrial sector are highly predictable, (ii) stocks from small firms tend to be more predictable than the ones from large firms, (iii) the Brazilian stock market, measured by the Ibovespa index from 1986 to 2008, shows an increase of efficiency since 1994.

 Artículos similares

       
 
Chyi-Lun Chiou     Pág. 148 - 157
This article investigates the use of cash flow-fundamental ratio in forecasting stock market return and examines implications behind this ratio. By presuming the dynamics of cash flow-fundamental ratio I identify the relationship between economic uncerta... ver más

 
Jayen B. Patel    
The January Barometer or the Other January effect suggests that January returns can predict future performance of the stock market. In this study, it is examined if any particular calendar month return can effectively be used as a monthly barometer to ac... ver más

 
João Frois Caldeira,Gulherme Valle Moura     Pág. 49 - 80
Statistical arbitrage strategies, such as pairs trading and its generalizations, rely on the construction of mean- reverting spreads with a certain degree of predictability. This paper applies cointegration tests to identify stocks to be used in pairs tr... ver más

 
Pradosh Simlai     Pág. 291 - 315
In this paper we provide a new type of risk characterization of the predictability of two widely known abnormal patterns in average stock returns: momentum and reversal. The purpose is to illustrate the relative importance of common risk factors and endo... ver más

 
Walter Gonçalves Junior,Fábio Gallo Garcia,William Eid Junior,Luciana Ribeiro Chalela     Pág. 227 - 256
Investors constantly look for significant predictors and accurate models to forecast future results, whose occasional efficacy end up being neutralized by market efficiency. Regardless, such predictors are widely used for seeking better (and more unique... ver más