Mathematical model of determining a risk to the human health along with the detection of hazardous states of urban atmosphere pollution based on measuring the current concentrations of pollutants

Boris Pospelov    
Vladimir Andronov    
Evgeniy Rybka    
Olekcii Krainiukov    
Nadiya Maksymenko    
Ruslan Meleshchenko    
Yuliia Bezuhla    
Inna Hrachova    
Roman Nesterenko    
Alla Shumilova    


A mathematical model of joint determining the risk to human health and the identification of hazardous states of the polluted urban atmosphere based on the measurement of current concentrations of pollutants was developed. The structure of the model includes two structural units. The input data for structural units are the results of measuring current concentrations of atmospheric pollutants at a checkpoint. The current risk to human health is calculated in the first unit, and recurrent states of atmosphere for early detection of dangerous pollution levels are determined in the second unit. A distinctive feature of the model is the use of only measurements of current concentrations of pollutants in the atmosphere at a control point. Meteorological or other information is not used. That is why the developed model is universal and can be used in any weather conditions and peculiarities of the urban infrastructure. The operation efficiency of the proposed model was tested experimentally using the example of measuring current concentrations of formaldehyde, nitrogen dioxide, and ammonia in the atmosphere of the typical urban infrastructure. It was established that the developed model makes it possible to determine the risk of immediate toxic effects and chronic intoxication for humans, caused by atmospheric pollution. It was proved experimentally that the proposed model makes it possible, together with the identification of relevant risks to human health, to detect hazardous states of the polluted atmosphere, in which pollutants are usually accumulated. It was established that determining the current probability of recurrent conditions of the polluted atmosphere makes it possible with various reliability degrees to detect the possible occurrence of negative effects of atmospheric pollution on human health 6?12 hours beforehand

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