Redirigiendo al acceso original de articulo en 15 segundos...

The bankruptcy prediction approach: An empirical study of comparison between the emerging market score model and bankruptcy prediction indicators approach in the Johannesburg Stock Exchange

Ronel J. Cassim    
Matthys J. Swanepoel    


AbstractOrientation: The effective and timely bankruptcy prediction is crucial to the survival of companies. In order to attain a desired result an effective bankruptcy prediction tool needs to be applied within a South African context.Research purpose: The aim of this study was to determine whether bankruptcy could have been predicted within the 5 years prior to failure for the study period between 2016 and 2018.Motivation for the study: Most of the bankruptcy prediction studies in South Africa are industry- or sector-based, not many studies are found to be generic, easy to use and apply, and thus one model is applied for different industries or sectors.Research approach/design and method: From the population, the total sample consists of five companies within four different sectors, such as industrial, construction, retail, and personal and household sectors. Financial indicators (financial ratios) were obtained for both the BPIA and EMS from the INET (a South African supplier of quality financial data) McGregor BFA database, a JSE portal. A mixed-method research approach was applied by making use of a qualitative and quantitative methodology.Main findings: The findings revealed that the BPIA is an effective and reliable analytical tool to predict or detect the bankruptcy of South African companies.Practical/managerial implications: Based on the finding of the study companies within diverse industries should apply the BPIA regularly and take remedial action significantly to improve their financial well-being.Contribution/value add: The study has identified the BPIA has a better prediction accuracy than the renowned EMS model in South African context.

 Artículos similares

Nora Muñoz-Izquierdo, María-del-Mar Camacho-Miñano, María-Jesús Segovia-Vargas and David Pascual-Ezama    
Despite the number of studies on bankruptcy prediction using financial ratios, very little is known about how external audit information can contribute to anticipating financial distress. A handful of papers have shown that a combination of ratios and au... ver más

Edward I. Altman    
Fifty years ago, I published the initial, classic version of the Z-score bankruptcy prediction models. This multivariate statistical model has remained perhaps the most well-known, and more importantly, most used technique for providing an early warning ... ver más

Blazej Prusak    
In developed countries, the first studies on forecasting bankruptcy date to the early 20th century. In Central and Eastern Europe, due to, among other factors, the geopolitical situation and the introduced economic system, this issue became the subject o... ver más

Mrs Herlin     Pág. 12 - 23
Based on the calculation of the Altman model in predicting bankrupt at PT. Bank Rakyat Indonesia (Persero) Tbk in 2014, 2015, 2016, PT. Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk in 2014 and 2015 and is PT.Bank Tabungan Negara (Persero) Tbk in 2014 with a score of Z-sco... ver más

Muammar Khaddafi,Falahuddin Falahuddin,Mohd. Heikal,Ayu Nandari     Pág. 326 - 330
This study aimed to test the predictions of bankruptcy in the banking companies listed in the Indonesia Stock Exchange yy using the Altman Z-score to see how big the bankruptcy prediction period 2011-2013  in the banking company. Calculating each ba... ver más