ARTÍCULO
TITULO

Fractal Market Hypothesis and Markov Regime Switching Model: A Possible Synthesis and Integration

Mishelle Doorasamy    
Prince Kwasi Sarpong    

Resumen

Peters (1994) proposed the fractal market hypothesis (FMH) as an alternative to the efficient market hypothesis, following his criticism of the EMH. In this study, we analyse whether the fractal nature of a financial market determines its riskiness and degree of persistence as measured by its Hurst exponent. To do so, we utilize the Markov Switching Model to derive a persistence index (PI) to measure the level of persistence of selected indices on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE) and four other international stock markets. We conclude that markets with high Hurst exponents, show stronger persistence and less risk relative to markets with lower Hurst exponents.Keywords: Fractal Market Hypothesis, Markov Switching Model, Efficient Market HypothesisJEL Classifications: G150, G140

 Artículos similares

       
 
Tafirei Mashamba,Rabson Magweva    
AbstractOrientation: The behaviour of stock market return volatility and implications thereof in Southern African Development Committee (SADC).Research purpose: The main aim of this study was to examine leverage effects and volatility persisten... ver más

 
Keith Pilbeam and Hamish Preston    
This paper assesses the performance of 355 actively managed Japanese Equity Mutual Funds between April 2011 and April 2016. The equal weight portfolio and Jensen?s alpha measures of active management provide strong evidence that Japanese Mutual Funds fai... ver más

 
Natália Costa, César Silva and Paulo Ferreira    
In recent years, increasing attention has been devoted to cryptocurrencies, owing to their great development and valorization. In this study, we propose to analyse four of the major cryptocurrencies, based on their market capitalization and data availabi... ver más

 
Nicola Metzger and Vijay Shenai    
The performance of hedge funds is of interest to investors looking for ways of generating value over passive strategies, particularly in bad times. This study used the Hedge Index database with over 9500 hedge funds to analyse, in depth, the performance ... ver más

 
Sanderson Abel,Khobai Hlalefang,Pierre Le Roux,Learnmore Mutandwa     Pág. 54 - 63
The study aims to investigate the profit persistence and identify the determinants of profitability in the Zimbabwean banking sector during the period 2009-2014. The study established that banks were inefficient operating under monopolistic competition. ... ver más