ARTÍCULO
TITULO

Analysis and forecasting of changes in the soil temperature distribution in the area of the city of Norilsk

A. A. Fedotov    
V.V. Kaniber    
P. V. Khrapov    

Resumen

The article studies the initial boundary value problem for a non-stationary one-dimensional heat equation that simulates the distribution of soil temperature in the area of Norilsk. The mathematical model is based on solid-liquid phase transitions. To determine the model parameters, data from the meteorological station and reports on engineering and geological surveys were used to obtain the necessary physical and thermophysical characteristics of the calculated area. For the numerical solution of the problem, the finite volume method (FVM) was used. The calculation was started on January 1 of the first year of observation of the soil temperature distribution. Simulation of the soil temperature distribution was carried out until the moment of reaching the non-stationary periodic mode. In order to analyze the temperature field, graphs of the temperature dependence on the depth for January and July of the 7 selected years of observation were constructed. The study of the results showed that it takes about 50 years for the soil temperature to reach a non-stationary periodic mode at a depth of 20 m. For a steady-state periodic mode, temperature dependences on the depth for each month are constructed and the depth of the active layer (0.5 m) and the depth of zero amplitudes (12 m) are found. The forecast of the ground temperature distribution for 2080 was modeled for two scenarios of Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) of global warming: moderate RCP2.6 and negative RCP8.5. The RCP2.6 scenario showed an increase in the depth of thawing (freezing) by 0.1 m and a decrease in the depth of zero amplitudes by 1 m, as well as an increase of soil temperature at all depths by an average of 2°C. The results of calculations for the RCP8.5 scenario showed an increase in the depth of the active layer by 0.5 m (2 times compared to the present time) and a decrease in the depth of zero amplitudes by 4 m, the soil temperature increased by 5.7°C on average. In connection with the fuel spill that occurred in May 2020 from a storage tank in Norilsk due to subsidence of the foundation mainstays, the soil temperature distribution was modeled in 1980. The results showed an increase in the depth of the active layer since 1980 by 0.1 m, which could cause subsidence of the foundation piles of the storage tank. Further, a comparison of the long-term average monthly temperatures by decades was made, in which it was found that 2010-2020 has the largest number of the highest values of average monthly temperatures. This study further confirms the degradation of permafrost

 Artículos similares

       
 
Elena Pagano and Enrico Barbierato    
Air pollution is a paramount issue, influenced by a combination of natural and anthropogenic sources, various diffusion modes, and profound repercussions for the environment and human health. Herein, the power of time series data becomes evident, as it p... ver más
Revista: AI

 
Louis Closson, Christophe Cérin, Didier Donsez and Jean-Luc Baudouin    
This paper aims to provide discernment toward establishing a general framework, dedicated to data analysis and forecasting in smart buildings. It constitutes an industrial return of experience from an industrialist specializing in IoT supported by the ac... ver más
Revista: Information

 
Wen Tian, Yining Zhang, Ying Zhang, Haiyan Chen and Weidong Liu    
To fully leverage the spatiotemporal dynamic correlations in air traffic flow and enhance the accuracy of traffic flow prediction models, thereby providing a more precise basis for perceiving congestion situations in the air route network, a study was co... ver más
Revista: Aerospace

 
José Luis Roca-González, Juan-Antonio Vera-López and Margarita Navarro Pérez    
Cognitive workload analysis is an important aspect of safety studies at the Spanish Air Force Academy where students must complete a dual academic curriculum based on military pilot training combined with an industrial engineering degree. Recently, a men... ver más
Revista: Aerospace

 
Davide Fronzi, Gagan Narang, Alessandro Galdelli, Alessandro Pepi, Adriano Mancini and Alberto Tazioli    
Forecasting of water availability has become of increasing interest in recent decades, especially due to growing human pressure and climate change, affecting groundwater resources towards a perceivable depletion. Numerous research papers developed at var... ver más
Revista: Water