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Elaborado por el Consejo de Políticas de Infraestructura (CPI), este documento constituye una hoja de ruta estratégica para orientar la inversión y la gestión de infraestructura en Chile. Presenta propuestas organizadas en siete ejes estratégicos, sin centrarse en proyectos específicos, sino en influir en las decisiones de política pública para promover una infraestructura que conecte territorios, genere oportunidades y eleve la calidad de vida de la población.
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ARTÍCULO
TITULO

THE DYNAMIC CAUSAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN OIL PRICE AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN OIL-IMPORTING SSA COUNTRIES: A MULTIVARIATE MODEL

Motunrayo O. Akinsola    
Nicholas M. Odhiambo    

Resumen

This study examines the causal relationship between oil price and economic growth in 14 oil-importing countries in sub-Saharan Africa during the period 1990 to 2018. The countries are further divided into two groups, namely seven low-income countries (LICs) and seven middle-income countries (MICs) in order to test whether the causality between oil price and economic growth depends on the countries? income levels. Unlike previous studies that used a bivariate model, this study employs a multivariate Granger-causality model, which incorporates oil consumption and real exchange rate as intermittent variables in a bivariate setting between oil price and economic growth. The study employs panel cointegration and the panel Granger-causality tests to examine this linkage. The results of the study show that in the short run, there is a bidirectional causality between oil price and economic growth for the entire dataset, and both for the LICs and MICs. However, in the long run, there is a bidirectional causal relationship between oil price and economic growth for the entire dataset and MICs, but a unidirectional causality from economic growth to oil price for the LICs. Overall, the study found a feedback relationship between oil price and economic growth to be predominant.

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