Redirigiendo al acceso original de articulo en 19 segundos...
ARTÍCULO
TITULO

Land-use transport models for climate change mitigation and adaptation planning

Alistair Ford    
Richard Dawson    
Phil Blythe    
Stuart Barr    

Resumen

The adoption of the Paris Agreement has committed the world to limiting anthropogenic climate change to 2°C above preindustrial levels, adapting to climate risks, and fostering climate resilience. Given the high proportion of global emissions released by cities and the concentration of people living in urban areas, this will require an unprecedented reduction in greenhouse gas emissions and transformation of the built environment on a yet unparalleled timescale. This poses substantial challenges for urban land-use and transport planning and for the use of land-use transport models (LUTM), which have historically been developed to test incremental changes rather than the rapid transformations implied by the Paris Agreement. This paper sets out the need for a new generation of tools to support the planning of a transition toward a low-carbon and resilient future, arguing that land-use and transport modeling tools are crucial to support this process. Recent developments in urban integrated assessment that link models of land-use and transport with other environmental models of greenhouse gas emissions and climate hazards show promise as platforms to assess the potential of urban policies in achieving the goals set out in the Paris Agreement. The paper concludes by defining challenges for the LUTM community if it is to achieve these goals. Crucial will be the adoption of new modeling approaches to better represent rapid social and technological change and to concurrently assess the resilience and sustainability implications of different land-use and transport policies. Simple models to explore multiple scenarios of change must be integrated with more sophisticated models for detailed design. Collaborative approaches will be necessary to allow multiple stakeholders to use these tools to explore urban futures and design radical urban transitions across multiple and interdependent urban sectors.

 Artículos similares

       
 
Rick Donnelly    
An ambitious and innovative integrated land use-transport modeling system has been developed in Oregon over the past two decades. This work, completed under the Transportation and Land Use Model Integration Program (TLUMIP), included the development of t... ver más

 
Becky Loo, Ka Ho Tsoi    
In this paper, a holistic strategy of the ?Five Transformations? is introduced to offer a comprehensive and synergetic theory to tackle various daunting challenges faced by the transport sector and ultimately pave the way to sustainable transport. The Fi... ver más

 
Ming Zhong, Wanle Wang, John Douglas Hunt, Haixiao Pan, Tao Chen, Jianzhong Li, Wei Yang, Ke Zhang    
Massive construction of transportation infrastructure and fast growth of private car ownership have brought unprecedented changes in land use and transportation systems to cities and regions in many developing countries. Traditional ?four-step? travel de... ver más

 
Billie Giles-Corti    
By 2050, it is estimated that around 6.3 billion people will live in cities (United Nations Population Fund, 2011). Indeed, nearly 70% of humanity will live in cities, representing a unique moment in time in human history. As we hurtle towards this uncer... ver más

 
Philippe Gerber, Geoffrey Caruso, Eric Cornelis, Cyrille Médard de Chardon    
The increasing attractiveness of Luxembourg as a place to work and live puts its land use and transport systems under high pressure. Understanding how the country can accommodate residential growth and additional traffic in a sustainable manner is a key ... ver más