Inicio  /  Acta Scientiarum: Technology  /  Vol: 41 Par: 0 (2019)  /  Artículo
ARTÍCULO
TITULO

A comparative study on combinations of forecasts and their individual forecasts by means of simulated series

Aline Castello Branco Mancuso    
Liane Werner    

Resumen

Over the years, several studies that compare individual forecasts with the combination of forecasts were published. There is, however, no unanimity in the conclusions. Furthermore, methods of combination by regression are poorly explored. This paper presents a comparative study of three methods of combination and their individual forecasts. Based on simulated data, it is evaluated the accuracy of Artificial Neural Networks, ARIMA and exponential smoothing models; calculating the combined forecasts through simple average, minimum variance and regression methods. Four accuracy measurements, MAE, MAPE, RMSE and Theil?s U, were used for choosing the most accurate method. The main contribution is the accuracy of the combination by regression methods.

 Artículos similares

       
 
Lucky O. Daniel, Caston Sigauke, Colin Chibaya and Rendani Mbuvha    
Wind offers an environmentally sustainable energy resource that has seen increasing global adoption in recent years. However, its intermittent, unstable and stochastic nature hampers its representation among other renewable energy sources. This work addr... ver más
Revista: Algorithms

 
Aline Castello Branco Mancuso, Liane Werner (Author)     Pág. e41452
Over the years, several studies that compare individual forecasts with the combination of forecasts were published. There is, however, no unanimity in the conclusions. Furthermore, methods of combination by regression are poorly explored. This paper pres... ver más

 
Konstantinos I. Papageorgiou, Katarzyna Poczeta, Elpiniki Papageorgiou, Vassilis C. Gerogiannis and George Stamoulis    
This paper introduced a new ensemble learning approach, based on evolutionary fuzzy cognitive maps (FCMs), artificial neural networks (ANNs), and their hybrid structure (FCM-ANN), for time series prediction. The main aim of time series forecasting is to ... ver más
Revista: Algorithms

 
Kelley Sterle, Loretta Singletary     Pág. 1 - 24
In snow-fed inland river systems in the western United States, water supply depends upon timing, form, and amount of precipitation. In recent years, this region has experienced unprecedented drought conditions due to decreased snowpack, exacerbated by ex... ver más
Revista: Water

 
Amos O. Anele, Yskandar Hamam, Adnan M. Abu-Mahfouz and Ezio Todini    
The stochastic nature of water consumption patterns during the day and week varies. Therefore, to continually provide water to consumers with appropriate quality, quantity and pressure, water utilities require accurate and appropriate short-term water de... ver más
Revista: Water