Resumen
Water, soil, and heat are strategic supporting elements for human survival and social development. The degree of matching between human-land-water-heat elements directly influences the sustainable development of a region. However, the current evaluation of the matching of human-land-water-heat elements overlooks the influence of elevation factors on the matching results, especially evident in mountainous areas. Taking the Yunnan Plateau with distinctive mountainous features as the research subject, divided into 11 elevation ranges, the Lorenz Gini coefficient, asymmetry coefficient, matching distance, and imbalance index are used to assess the spatial matching and balance of human-land-water-heat elements. A projection tracing model is employed to analyze its water resource carrying capacity. Analyses revealed that the Gini coefficient of monthly precipitation from the 1950s to 2022 on the Yunnan Plateau increases with increasing latitude, whereas the correlation with elevation is notably lower. The asymmetry coefficient increases gradually from west to east with change in longitude. The mismatch of the human?land?water?heat system in regions at different elevations is in the order 1800?2000 m > 2000?2200 m > 1400?1600 m > 800 m > other areas. The matching of the human?land?water?heat system in different wet?dry years and seasons also fluctuates with elevation, resulting in serious seasonal drought and water shortage problems in mountainous areas with elevations of 1200?1600, 1800?2000 m, and >2600 m. The spatial equilibrium of temperature and precipitation in regions of different elevations is best, followed by that of cultivated land, while that of the population is the worst. The Gini coefficients for different water cycle processes of precipitation, surface runoff, and regulating storage capacity for water supply continue to increase. Specifically, the Gini coefficient of industrial water supply is the highest, reaching 0.576, and that of agricultural irrigation is the lowest (0.424). Through artificial regulation of lake and reservoir water, seasonal changes in the demand for agricultural irrigation water are offset to achieve a demand?supply balance and matching of land and water resources. The water resource capacity of different elevation ranges is evenly underloaded. However, the potential of the water resource capacity varies obviously with elevation in the order 2000?2200 m < 1800?2000 m < 1600?8000 m < 1400?1600 m < other areas. It appears that the greater the human?land?water?heat system mismatch, the smaller the regional potential of the water resource capacity.