Resumen
The study aims to assess climate change impacts on streamflow drought in a catchment upstream of Tseng-Wen Reservoir which is the main water supplier in southern Taiwan. A singular-value-decomposition statistical downscaling method and a stochastic weather generator were applied to six different general circulation models for rainfall and temperature downscaling. Two emission climate change scenarios (A1B and B1) were used for rainfall and temperature projections during the two periods, 2010?2045 and 2081?2100. After rainfall and temperature projections, the HBV-based hydrological model was used to simulate future streamflows. By using the threshold level method, the characteristics of streamflow drought during the baseline period (1975?2000) and the future periods were calculated and compared. Important findings include: (1) the start and end times of scenario droughts occur earlier than those of baseline droughts; (2) streamflow under future scenarios during the dry period tends to decrease in January and February, but to increase in March and April; and (3) most of general circulation models? results support that the drought duration and magnitude tend to decrease for a given return period in the future, and the occurrence probability of severer drought tends to decrease.