ARTÍCULO
TITULO

Beplanning van toekomstige ekonomiese ontwikkeling met besondere verwysing na kapitaalvorming, monetere beleid en werkgeleentheidskepping

Simon S. Brand    

Resumen

AbstractPlanning future economic development with special reference to capital formation, monetary policy and the creation of job opportunities. Planning is discussed as centralized control of the rate and the direction of economic growth. Although such total central control does not exist, and is not pursued in South Africa, and the role of the free market mechanism is increasingly recognized, a certain degree of government participation in the country's economy is inevitable, particularly to help to realize the evolving national strategy. Short term objectives of economic policy focus on satisfactory growth in gross domestic product, price stability and external balance, while long term objectives aim at maintaining economic growth, employment opportunity, acceptable distribution of income, geographic spread of economic activities, adequate provision of collective goods and services and protection against external economic threat. Due to increasing unemployment creation of jobs is particularly important as a consideration for investment by both the private and public sectors. Three simulations done for the latest economic development programme for South Africa for the period 1978- 1987 and the implications of different outcomes are discussed. Even if the most favourable forecast applies, an unacceptably high unemployment rate can still be expected.Beplanning word bespreek as gesentraliseerde beheer van die koers en die rigting van ekonomiese groei. Alhoewel sodanige volkome sentrale beheer nie in Suid-Afrika bestaan of nagestreef word nie en nuwe klem val op die rol van die vrye markmeganisme, is 'n sekere mate van owerheidsdeelname in die landsekonomie onvermydelik, veral ook om die ontplooiende nasionale strategie te help verwesenlik. Doelwitte in ekonomiese beleid is op die korttermyn gerig op 'n bevredigende groeikoers in die bruto binnelandse produk, prysstabiliteit en eksterne ewewig, terwyl langtermyndoelstellings klem plaas op handhawing van ekonomiese groeikoers, werkvoorsiening, aanvaarbare verdeling van inkome, geografiese verspreiding van ekonomiese bedrywighede, voorsiening van voldoende kollektiewegoedere en dienste en versekering teen eksterne ekonomiese bedreigings. Weens stygende werkloosheid is veral werkvoorsiening van groot belang by investering deur sowel die private as die openbare sektore. Drie simulasies wat vir die jongste ekonomiese ontwikkelingsprogram vir Suid-Afrika oor die tydperk 1978-1987 en die implikasies van verskillende uitkomste gedoen is, word bespreek. Maar selfs as die gunstigste vooruitskatting geld, kan 'n onaanvaarbaar hoe werkloosheidskoers nog verwag word.

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