Resumen
The perspective of maintaining residential buildings in adequate technical condition is one of the most important problems over the course of their service life. The aim of the work is to present issues connected with the methods of predicting the process of changes in performance characteristics over the entire period that a building, constructed using traditional technology, is operational. Identification of the technical situation consists of a prognosis based on the analytical form of the distribution function and probability density of building usability. The technical condition of a building results from its past, while familiarity with the condition is necessary to determine how the building will behave in the future. The presented predictive diagnostics of the performance characteristics of an entire building and its elements is an original methodology of describing the lifespan of a building. In addition to identifying the technical condition, its aim is also to aid in making decisions regarding maintenance works. The developed model of predicting changes in the performance characteristics of buildings, the Prediction of Reliability according to Exponentials Distribution (PRED), is based on the principles applied for technical devices. The model is characterized by significant limitations in its application due to the negligible influence of wear processes. In connection with the above, the Prediction of Reliability according to Raleigh Distribution (PRDD) was developed, where the carried-out processes of changes in the performance characteristics are described using Rayleigh’s distribution, and the building is a multi-element system. Model development would be incomplete without subjecting it to verification. Predicting the degree of the technical wear of load-bearing walls of a building is a form of checking the proposed PRED and PRRD models on the basis of data derived from periodical inspections of the research material. The developed model of the time distribution of the proper functioning of a building, presented as an image of the forecast of changes in the technical condition, can be applied to solving problems occurring in practice. The targeted approach to predicting the occurrence of damage will allow for optimal planning of maintenance works in buildings during their entire service life.